Inventory is still low, but we are seeing a slight increase...

As of mid April, we have 2,318 homes for sale with an average list price of $1,026,804 (median price $639k).  591 of the 2800 homes are listed over $1 Million and 6 are listed over $10 Million.  Last year at this time we had 1,857 homes for sale.  With continued buyer demand, the 24% increase in homes for sale is much needed. 

How do these number compare historically?  Well... we are used to averaging about 6,500 homes for sale this time of year:

End of March

2021 = 1,190

2020 = 5,585

2019 = 6,690

2018 = 6,383

What does that mean for you? 

With over 3,000 homes selling per month, it is still an ultra strong sellers market.  We need and estimated 15,000 homes to come on the market at once to bring us back to a "balanced market" of 6 months inventory compared to the 1/2 months worth of inventory we currently have.... in other words... it is still a great time to buy and a great time to be a seller!

Here's a quick look at the monthly activity trends:

And, of course, everyone's favorite - Check out the March 2022 >>> MEDIAN SALES PRICE APPRECIATION BY ZIP CODE

If you are curious about what is happening in your neighborhood or have been thinking about buying or selling real estate in the Austin area, call me!  I'd love the opportunity to help you!                                                                                                                                                            

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

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Curious about how much homes have appreciated in your zip code?  Check out this Heat Map for the Median Sales Price Appreciation from January 2021 to January 2022. 

It's an extraordinary time in Austin to sell!  Call me if you have been considering listing your home.  I'd love the opportunity to help you with a quick sale at top dollar. 

Lori Wakefield, REALTOR | Keller Williams Austin TX | 512.657.4455 

And Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for your referrals!

We are starting to see a shift in the Austin Real Estate Market!

While this shift seems to be seasonal, we are seeing other factors that indicate we are headed back to a more balanced real estate market.

Number of Home Sales

The number of home sales for July is down 7.5% from June and down 9.5% from July of last year.  This downward shift is something we see this time of year, typically due to school starting.  Buyer demand is still strong however.  Our year-to-date home sales for 2021 is up 11.5% compared to last year.  

Median Home Prices

We continue to see a stabilization in home prices.  The median home price in Austin right now is $480k which is up 37% from July of last year.  Compared to last month, however, the shift was every so slight, from $482k to $480k.  Historically, prices soften a bit in the Fall and Winter. 

Homes for Sale

We are finally seeing a significant shift in the number of homes coming on the market - in fact, a 78% increase from June to July.  More homes to choose from has lessened the buyer competition and helped to stabilize prices. 

Months Inventory

Even with the increase in listings, it is still a strong sellers market with less than one months of inventory.  In other words, if we continue to sell homes at the same pace as we have been, it will take less than one month to sell everything currently on the market.  A 6 month supply of homes is considered a balance ("normal") real estate market... which we actually haven't seen in the past 5 years.

If you or someone you know is in the market to buy or sell a home in Austin Texas, call me!  I would love the opportunity to help.

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

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Thanks again to David Tandy, CEO of Texas National Title for a great Economic Update highlighting the conditions, statistics, and projections of our Austin Real Estate Market.   This is a follow up from a previous conversation I had with him last month that you can read about here:  Are We Set For a Market Crash?

Population and Job Growth for Austin 

• The US Population has been on a decline since the 2007 recession with fewer births over deaths.
• TEXAS is #1 in the nation for population growth
• AUSTIN is currently in growth mode with an uptick in population since 2018.

Where have all the workers gone? 

If Austin's population is on the rise, where are all of the workers?  People don't want to work due to COVID and Unemployment Payments.  

• 22 million US jobs lost during COVID shut downs
• 17 million jobs since created
• We need 6 million jobs to get back to pre pandemic 
• As of July 2021, there were 10 million US Job Postings
• 8 million unemployed people

AUSTIN has the Top 3 healthiest job markets in the US.

• 4.4% Unemployment rate (5& is considered full employment) \.  Everyone wh wants a job has one.
• Austin has 90,000 job openings 
• 55,000 unemployment people 
• 

Which Employers are Expanding or Relocating to Austin?

Home Inventory Shortage 

Why are there so few Resale Listings? 

• People have been reluctant to list because of COVID
• Where would they go???
• People are staying in their homes longer
• Impact of increasing Labor and Material Costs

Why is Inventory so Low?  

In the early 2000's, the US was building more homes than the population increase.  This was scaled back during the recession and we were not building enough homes.  This is not getting adjusted, but in Austin that variance is greater and we have had a 15 year shortfall.  We are only now, this year, starting to build enough homes.  

Inflation

What is causing the jump in Inflation?

Core inflation has jumped to 4.5% where 2% is the goal.  (Core Inflation does not include food or gas which is typically volatile).  The Core Inflation jump has been caused by shortages of supply and supply chain issues which is temporary and should correct itself.  If the Fed decides inflation is a big deal, we will start to see mortgage rate rise.

Home Price Trends

We are not expecting to see home prices drop.  This is not a bubble that will burst because we don't have loans being made that people can't afford.  Home prices should not exceed inflation so we should see a slow down.  Austin is still considered affordable because personal income is high.  However, that could change as income hasn't increased at the same rate as home prices.  

Buyer demand is still strong.  The number of homes sold is up 27% over the 2Q 2020 and up 8% comparing June of last year to June of this year.  

We are seeing a stabilization of home prices.  While average home prices are up 43% from this time last year, the increase from May to June was only 1.7%.  

We still have a shortage of inventory.  The number of homes on the market is down 129% from this time last year!  However, there seems to be more home coming on the market each month and we are up 16% from where we ended 2020.  The increase in the number of homes means more  choices for buyers and fewer multiple offers for sellers.  

Homes are still selling  quickly.  There is currently 0.6 months of inventory on the market which is a very strong sellers market.  Six (6) months of inventory is considered a normal, balanced market.

Call me if you would like to know more about your specific situation or neighborhood.  I would love opportunity to help you! 

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

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07/09/2021 - I received a text message from a client concerned about the economy and how it could effect the sale of their home that we are putting on the market next week.  Specifically, they are concerned about interest rates dropping, the market will shift in a decline and could crash or cause an extreme correction. 

This concern is something I addressed in a recent post that you can read here:  Is This a Bubble? but I thought it was worth exploring again.

I shared my clients concern with David Tandy, President of Texas National Title.  He was on vacation, but I love that he took the time to respond so I could help my clients feel comfortable and confident in their decision to sell their home.

Here is what David had to say:

I’m on vacation so I can’t write much. Here are important points to highlight. 

1) Low interest rates help offset the increase in home prices. Ultimately the Fed wants to keep rates low for many reasons which helps home buyers. 

2) The economy is driven by having a healthy job market. And there has never been a hotter job market. Google “Austin chamber of commerce job report” and look at the most recent report. It shows there are almost 90,000 job postings per month. Far and away the highest it’s ever been. The economy is very hot and there are not enough employees with the needed skills. 

3) There is no danger of a bubble bursting. Mortgages have high underwriting standards. Loans have not been made to people who cannot afford them. Many sales have been for cash and many people have had to put down large down payments. People do not walk away from mortgages when they have large amounts of equity. 

 4) Forbearance is not an issue. There are only about 2 million loans still in forbearance. And all of those have equity. 

 5) Inventory will remain an issue for the next 6 years at least. It will take at least that long for builders to catch up to our population growth. 

 6) Austin is in really good shape for jobs. Google, Apple, Tesla have yet to really start the hiring. 

I’ll send more when I get back on the 14th 

In addition to David's comments, Austin is currently ranked as the #3 Best City to Live in the US in 2020 and 2021 AND Austin has been named THE #1 CITY to Start a Business in 2020 for the third consecutive year!  There is not a better place to be than Austin Texas!

If you or someone you know is in that market to buy or sell in the Austin area, I would love the opportunity to help!

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

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What are the most asked real estate questions on Google right now?

1.  Is this a bubble?  

NO!  The reasons both local and national economists do not believe a crash is likely, is because:

• Inventory is at record lows
• Developers and builders cannot build quick enough to meet demand - Austin has on average 150 families per day moving here!
• Mortgage rates are still near historic lows
• Lending parameters are still strict
• Foreclosure activity is near nonexistent
• Job creation - Austin has a long list of major companies moving or expanding here

2.  When is the housing market going to crash?

There are no current economic indicators pointing to a crash anytime soon because of all the reason we aren't in a bubble.  

3.  Why is the market so hot?

• There is very little supply of existing homes
• Builders can not keep up with demand to help bridge the supply gap
• Mortgage Rates are at records low
• Demographic trends - 62 million Millennials are now at home buying age adding to the already 55 miilion Gen X'ers
• COVID lockdowns made people re-evaluate their lifestyles and the increased ability to work from anywhere has opened up buying options.

4.  How much over asking should I offer?

I hate to say that it depends, but that's the answer... Inventory is low and buyer demand is high which is causing multiple offers on many homes.  While we are seeing a slow down from the frenzy we experienced at that beginning of the year, demand is still outpacing supply so buyers should expect to compete with multiple offers.  In the Austin market, every neighborhood and price point is behaving a little differently. 

This market can seem difficult to navigate to the average consumer because it is fast paced and transactions are becoming increasingly complex.  That is why it is so important to work with a REALTOR who understands the market and can help you find a home that fits your needs and your budget.  If you are thinking of buying a home, I'd love to chat with you about your specific situation.  

Is the Austin Real Estate Market slowing down??  Leading report indicators tell us it's starting to look that way!

While multiple offers are still common, homes are receiving fewer offers than we've seen over the past few months.  Additionally, we are seeing the number of new listings outpace the number of homes going under contract and surprisingly, mortgage applications are the lowest we've seen since February 2020.  Lastly, according to a recent survey of local real estate agents, nearly 62% feel that the market is normalizing or cooling down.  

What does that mean for you? 

Despite the "slow" down, what we are seeing is shift from an "Ultra Strong" Sellers Market to a "Strong" Sellers Market.  Home prices are still going up and buyer demand is still strong, but we are seeing a stabilizing of the market.  It is still a great time to buy and a great time to be a seller.

Here's a quick look at the monthly activity trends:

And, of course, everyone's favorite - Check out the May 2021 >>> MEDIAN SALES PRICE APPRECIATION BY ZIP CODE

If you are curious about what is happening in your neighborhood or have been thinking about buying or selling real estate in the Austin area, call me!  I'd love the opportunity to help you!

                                                                                                            Happy Summer!                                                        

Curious about how much homes have appreciated in your zip code?  Check out this Heat Map for the Median Sales Price Appreciation from March 2020 to March 2021. 

It's an extraordinary time in Austin to sell!  Call me if you have been considering listing your home.  I'd love the opportunity to help you with a quick sale at top dollar. 

Lori Wakefield, REALTOR | Keller Williams Austin TX | 512.657.4455 

And Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for your referrals!