What's been happening in the Austin Real Estate Market?  Let's discuss... 

On everyone's mind.... Home Prices

The median home price for September 2022 was $470,000, up from $445,000 this time last year, but is a 5% drop from the month before.  The median home price peaked at $550,000 in Apr/May of this year which means prices have seen a 15% decline since then, but to put it in perspective, the median home price at the start of the year was $476,000 or 1% higher so while we have lost all of the appreciation we saw in the Spring of this year, home prices are still holding 2021 appreciation.

These next two graphs provided by Chris Jacobs at Austin Housing Report show a more real time, Rolling Thirty Day Average of New List Price and Pending List Price - in other words, the New List Price shows the Average list price of comes coming on the market.  The Pending List Price shows us what the buyers are actually buying.  At the end of October, the average list price of homes was close to $750k, but the average price of the homes going under contract was at least 15% less at closer to $600k.  What does that mean?  Unless demand picks up, we are going to see a lot of price reductions over the next few months. 

Flashback to 2019... or 2018

The number of homes sold is down 6% compared to this time last year and down 20% comparing Q3 of 2021 to 2022 (10,963 homes sold Q3 2021 and 8,765 sold Q3 2022).  While official October numbers haven't been published yet, the preliminary numbers are showing an even further slow down with a 35% drop in homes sold from Sept to Oct and a 43% drop from Sep of last year.

While that is a big swing, the number of homes sold is taking us back to 2018-19 levels which feels really slow compared to where we have been the past couple years.  It is important to remember these past couple years have been an anomaly as explained in this article by Mike Delprete, "2021 is an Outlier, Not a Benchmark"

In this graph from Chris Jacobs of Austin House Report, you can see the big shift that started happening about 6 months ago when the number of homes for sale started out pacing the number of homes going under contract and selling.

Number of Homes for Sale still on the Rise

We continue to see a rise in homes coming on the market - 6.9% increase from August and a 261% increase over this time last year.  Overall, we are up about 30% over what has historically been considered normal for this time of year.

What does all of this mean for you?

If you are a buyer:  Fewer buyers and more homes to choose from is great for buyers especially after 2 years of a highly competitive market and competing (or not being able to compete) for the few homes that were for sale. Additionally, a lot of mortgage lenders are offering interest rate programs that allow you to get in at a lower rate the first year or two and later, when rates start to go back down, look at refinancing.

If you are seller: You can still benefit from the appreciate we've seen these past two years.  Just know that there are a lot of homes competing for the same few buyers which means the the homes that are selling are staged, in great condition and priced well.

Call me, if you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell real estate in the Austin area, I'd love to help!

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

‌

What's been happening in the Austin Real Estate Market?  Well.... let's start with interest rates.

As inflation remains at multi-decade highs, the Federal Reserve has been aggressive with its interest rate hikes.  In fact, rates have risen more than two percentage points in just six months.  Rates are rising faster than any other time in recent history.

The above graph shows the effective federal funds rate, which measures the weighted average of the rates that banks use to lend to each other overnight.  It is determined by the market, but influenced by the Fed's target range.  

When the federal funds rate increases, it becomes more expensive for banks to borrow from other banks.  Those higher costs may be passed on to consumers in the form of higher interest rates on lines of credit, auto loans, and to some extent mortgages.

This year, mortgage rates have risen ahead of each Fed rate hike.  The Fed's rate increases ended what had been a long run of historically low mortgage rates, in part due to the federal funds rate being so close to zero for roughly two years.  Unfortunately, the higher rates combined with rising home prices has taken a lot of buyers out of the market because of lack of affordability.

Let's take a look!

Nationally, the average mortgage rate for someone with a credit score of 750 or better is nearly 7.5%.

The median home price in the Austin area is about $500,000.

With 20% down payment, the mortgage amount would be $400,000.

At 7.5%, the monthly payment (not including taxes and fees) would be $2,797.... just 6 months ago the rate was 3.5% bringing that monthly payment to $1,796.  A difference of $1,001/mo.

Contrastly, to keep the monthly payment at $1,796 at today's rates, that same buyer could afford a home priced at $322,000 with 20% down payment.  That's a 35% decrease in buying power! 

As a result, we are seeing a decrease in home prices.  Median home prices have dropped 3.8% from July to August and just over 6% since the height of the market Apr/May this year.  While most of the appreciation gains from the past two years are still intact, at this rate, it looks like we may see prices drop below 2021 before the end of this year.  

Check out the annual appreciation in your area here >>  HEAT MAP  <<  

We did see a slight uptick in the number of home sales from July to August, however, sales are down 30% from the same time last year and preliminary numbers for September and October are showing a slow down in demand.  

We continue to see a large influx of homes coming on the market - a 169% increase over this time last year! And, at the end of September we hit 11,000 homes for sale.  

What does all of this mean for you?

Fewer buyers and more homes to choose from is great for buyers especially after 2 years of a highly competitive market and competing (or not being able to compete) for the few homes that were for sale. Additionally, a lot of mortgage lenders are offering interest rate programs that allow you to get in at a lower rate the first year or two and later, when rates start to go back down, you can refinance.

If you are seller, you can still benefit from the appreciate we've have these past two years.  Just know that there are a lot of homes competing for the same few buyers which means the the homes that are selling are staged, in great condition and priced well.

Call me, if you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell real estate in the Austin area, I'd love to help!

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

‌

As predicted, we continue to see a decline in home prices month over month with a 3% drop from last month and a 6% drop from the height of the market in April-May.  Unfortunately, that does not reflect the number of price reductions we have seen for homes still on the market meaning we should expect to see a continued downward trend over the next few months.  The good news is that most of the appreciation gains from the past two years are still intact.  

Check out the annual appreciation in your area here >>  HEAT MAP  <<  

Last month I said, "June 2022 was the slowest June for home sales that we have seen in the past 5 years." ... and now, it is July 2022 that holds the record which had 18% fewer homes sold than the month before and a 28% decline from July 2021 and a 57% drop from July 2020!  

We continue to see a large influx of homes coming on the market - a 624% increase over this time last year! And, as I'm writing this on August 23, 2022, we have 10,546 homes for sale which puts us back to 2011 inventory levels.  

What does all of this mean for you?

Fewer buyers and more homes to choose from is great for buyers especially after 2 years of a highly competitive market and competing (or not being able to compete) for the few homes that were for sale.  If you are seller, the opportunity to sell is still a good one and you can still benefit from the appreciate we've have these past two years, but your reality check is that the days of multiple offers and selling in a few days are gone.  The homes that are selling are staged, in great condition and priced well.

Call me, if you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell real estate in the Austin area, I'd love to help!

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

‌

This time last year my monthly real estate market update started with the sentence, "The Austin Real Estate Market continues to surprise us with some areas seeing over 40% appreciation in median home prices - I see you Dripping Springs!"   Well, what a difference a year makes!  While the annual appreciation from June 2021 to June 2022 has been good, we have officially seen a drop in the median and average home prices month over month and based on what we are seeing in the market real time, I expect to see another decline at July month end.  

Check out the annual appreciation in your area here >>  HEAT MAP  <<  

June 2022 was the slowest June for home sales that we have seen in the past 5 years.  A 20% decline from last year which was a record breaking month for home sales and a 4.39% drop from 2019 which was the next slowest June in the past 5 years.

This time last year, I stated, "We continue to see low inventory with the number of homes for sale down 70%.  Buyer demand is still very strong which is driving up prices - average home prices are up 41%, overall.  Our supply of homes is only 1/2 month which means homes are selling quickly, over asking and in multiple offers."

Today, we are seeing the largest influx of homes coming on the market that we have probably ever seen - a 315% increase over June 2021.  We are quickly reaching 2018-2019 inventory levels and as I'm writing this on July 22, we have officially reached 8,000 homes on the market.  

What does all of this mean for you?

Fewer buyers and more homes to choose from is great for buyers especially after 2 years of a highly competitive market and competing (or not being able to compete) for the few homes that were for sale.  If you are seller, the opportunity to sell is still a good one and you can still benefit from the appreciate we've have these past two years, but your reality check is that the days of multiple offers and selling in a few days are gone.  The homes that are selling are staged, in great condition and priced well.

Call me, if you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell real estate in the Austin area, I'd love to help!

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

‌

Just like last month, the Austin Real Estate market has changed significantly compared to the month end May numbers that were recently released.  

We currently have more homes for sale than we have seen in a long time and we are continuing to see more homes come on the market.  While we saw a 51% jump from April to May and a 144% increase from this time last year, it is looking like June will bring us at inventory levels not seen since 2020.   This is a great opportunity for buyers who have been frustrated with the previous lack of inventory and competing with other buyers.

June has been a busy month for homes coming on the market.

The true indicator of where the market is going... Homes Under Contract which have been on a steady decline since mid-May.  

We saw an increase of homes sold by 12% from April and 7% increase from last year.  Keep in mind, the number of sales is a lagging number as these are homes that went under contract 30-60 days prior.  In the coming months, this graph will start to take a different direction.

Sneak peak at June Sold units shows what we have been seeing the in the market - a sharp decline.

What does all of this mean for prices?  We are definitely seeing a stabilization in prices.  The days of pricing high and the market catching up are gone as are the multiple offers and homes selling the first weekend on the market which were the driving force of the market appreciation the past two years.  

If you are in the market to buy or sell your home, it is important now more than ever to hire an experienced professional to help you navigate this quickly changing market.  Call me if you would like to know more about your specific situation - I would love opportunity to help you! 

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

&zw

The market is changing fast!

I started writing this market update at the end of May when the final April numbers came out and here we are into June... So much has happened in May that I struggle to share the April update without also telling you that May and June are looking a lot different.

As you can see from the two graphs below, more homes are coming on the market, but the number of homes going under contract is declining. 

We are on our way back to 2018 real estate activity.

Inventory continues to rise...

At the of May we had 4,970 homes for sale compared to 2,763 at the end of April.  While that 80% increase is significant, we are still trending very slim on inventory compared to years past.  

How do these number compare historically?  Well... we are used to averaging about 7,000 homes for sale this time of year:

End of May 

2022 = 4,970

2021 = 1,712

2020 = 6,039

2019 = 7,505

2018 = 7,628

What does that mean for you? 

With over 3,000 homes selling per month, it is still a strong sellers market.  However, the increase in listings coupled with 3 straight months of fewer home sales compared to the previous year and a decline in the number of homes going under contract indicates we are starting to see a shift in the market.  How significant will this be?  It's too early to tell... and, keep in mind, even with this shift, our activity is still stronger than it was pre-Covid which was considered a great real estate market at the time.  This shift is being felt, though, as we are seeing homes stay on the market longer, price adjustments and fewer multiple offer situations.  

Here's a quick look at the monthly activity trends:  Preliminary numbers of homes sold for May 2022 is 3,190 which is a drop from last month as well as last year.

Let's take a look at prices.... 

Home prices are still the highest we've seen, however, the increase in mortgage rates will most likely keep home prices from escalating as we have seen in the past two years, but here is some insight from Stephen Roberts of Austin Mortgage Lending:

"YES, housing prices can always go down. There CAN be a CORRECTION (no asset class goes "up" in a straight line). However, here is a ANOTHER piece of evidence that shows housing may stay very resilient despite the stock market trending downwards (and Crypto losing 50% of their value). This is a great chart by the world famous Barry Habib.

VACANCY rates across the country are at ALL TIME lows. There is simply NOT enough housing for everyone who wants a home. Not enough supply, still strong demand - thanks to rising incomes and dual income households - this should keep prices up.

And remember... UNLIKE the stock market, where the top 10% of American earners own 90% of ALL OUTSTANDING stock.... about 65% of Americans OWN the house they live in... and another 15% of homes, that are rental properties, are owned by single, individual investors.

Homeownership is much more attainable AND much more wide spread than the daily fluctuations we see in financial news, the Wallstreet Journal, and the nightly news."

And, of course, everyone's favorite - Check out the latest >>> MEDIAN SALES PRICE APPRECIATION BY ZIP CODE

If you are curious about what is happening in your neighborhood or have been thinking about buying or selling real estate in the Austin area, call me!  I'd love the opportunity to help you!                                                                                                                                                            

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

‌

Inventory is still low, but we are seeing a slight increase...

As of mid April, we have 2,318 homes for sale with an average list price of $1,026,804 (median price $639k).  591 of the 2800 homes are listed over $1 Million and 6 are listed over $10 Million.  Last year at this time we had 1,857 homes for sale.  With continued buyer demand, the 24% increase in homes for sale is much needed. 

How do these number compare historically?  Well... we are used to averaging about 6,500 homes for sale this time of year:

End of March

2021 = 1,190

2020 = 5,585

2019 = 6,690

2018 = 6,383

What does that mean for you? 

With over 3,000 homes selling per month, it is still an ultra strong sellers market.  We need and estimated 15,000 homes to come on the market at once to bring us back to a "balanced market" of 6 months inventory compared to the 1/2 months worth of inventory we currently have.... in other words... it is still a great time to buy and a great time to be a seller!

Here's a quick look at the monthly activity trends:

And, of course, everyone's favorite - Check out the March 2022 >>> MEDIAN SALES PRICE APPRECIATION BY ZIP CODE

If you are curious about what is happening in your neighborhood or have been thinking about buying or selling real estate in the Austin area, call me!  I'd love the opportunity to help you!                                                                                                                                                            

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

‌

Curious about how much homes have appreciated in your zip code?  Check out this Heat Map for the Median Sales Price Appreciation from January 2021 to January 2022. 

It's an extraordinary time in Austin to sell!  Call me if you have been considering listing your home.  I'd love the opportunity to help you with a quick sale at top dollar. 

Lori Wakefield, REALTOR | Keller Williams Austin TX | 512.657.4455 

And Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for your referrals!

We are starting to see a shift in the Austin Real Estate Market!

While this shift seems to be seasonal, we are seeing other factors that indicate we are headed back to a more balanced real estate market.

Number of Home Sales

The number of home sales for July is down 7.5% from June and down 9.5% from July of last year.  This downward shift is something we see this time of year, typically due to school starting.  Buyer demand is still strong however.  Our year-to-date home sales for 2021 is up 11.5% compared to last year.  

Median Home Prices

We continue to see a stabilization in home prices.  The median home price in Austin right now is $480k which is up 37% from July of last year.  Compared to last month, however, the shift was every so slight, from $482k to $480k.  Historically, prices soften a bit in the Fall and Winter. 

Homes for Sale

We are finally seeing a significant shift in the number of homes coming on the market - in fact, a 78% increase from June to July.  More homes to choose from has lessened the buyer competition and helped to stabilize prices. 

Months Inventory

Even with the increase in listings, it is still a strong sellers market with less than one months of inventory.  In other words, if we continue to sell homes at the same pace as we have been, it will take less than one month to sell everything currently on the market.  A 6 month supply of homes is considered a balance ("normal") real estate market... which we actually haven't seen in the past 5 years.

If you or someone you know is in the market to buy or sell a home in Austin Texas, call me!  I would love the opportunity to help.

Lori Wakefield REALTOR Keller Williams Realty 512.657.4455 lwakefield@kw.com www.loriwakefield.com 1921 Lohmans Crossing, Austin TX 78734 Oh, by the way, I'm never too busy for you, or your referrals! IMPORTANT: The contents of this email and any attachments are confidential. They are intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you have received this email by mistake, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to anyone or make copies thereof.

‌