What's been happening in the Austin Real Estate Market? Let's discuss...
On everyone's mind.... Home Prices
The median home price for September 2022 was $470,000, up from $445,000 this time last year, but is a 5% drop from the month before. The median home price peaked at $550,000 in Apr/May of this year which means prices have seen a 15% decline since then, but to put it in perspective, the median home price at the start of the year was $476,000 or 1% higher so while we have lost all of the appreciation we saw in the Spring of this year, home prices are still holding 2021 appreciation.
These next two graphs provided by Chris Jacobs at Austin Housing Report show a more real time, Rolling Thirty Day Average of New List Price and Pending List Price - in other words, the New List Price shows the Average list price of comes coming on the market. The Pending List Price shows us what the buyers are actually buying. At the end of October, the average list price of homes was close to $750k, but the average price of the homes going under contract was at least 15% less at closer to $600k. What does that mean? Unless demand picks up, we are going to see a lot of price reductions over the next few months.
Flashback to 2019... or 2018
The number of homes sold is down 6% compared to this time last year and down 20% comparing Q3 of 2021 to 2022 (10,963 homes sold Q3 2021 and 8,765 sold Q3 2022). While official October numbers haven't been published yet, the preliminary numbers are showing an even further slow down with a 35% drop in homes sold from Sept to Oct and a 43% drop from Sep of last year.
While that is a big swing, the number of homes sold is taking us back to 2018-19 levels which feels really slow compared to where we have been the past couple years. It is important to remember these past couple years have been an anomaly as explained in this article by Mike Delprete, "2021 is an Outlier, Not a Benchmark"
In this graph from Chris Jacobs of Austin House Report, you can see the big shift that started happening about 6 months ago when the number of homes for sale started out pacing the number of homes going under contract and selling.
Number of Homes for Sale still on the Rise
We continue to see a rise in homes coming on the market - 6.9% increase from August and a 261% increase over this time last year. Overall, we are up about 30% over what has historically been considered normal for this time of year.
What does all of this mean for you?
If you are a buyer: Fewer buyers and more homes to choose from is great for buyers especially after 2 years of a highly competitive market and competing (or not being able to compete) for the few homes that were for sale. Additionally, a lot of mortgage lenders are offering interest rate programs that allow you to get in at a lower rate the first year or two and later, when rates start to go back down, look at refinancing.
If you are seller: You can still benefit from the appreciate we've seen these past two years. Just know that there are a lot of homes competing for the same few buyers which means the the homes that are selling are staged, in great condition and priced well.
Call me, if you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell real estate in the Austin area, I'd love to help!