Market data from the MLS for zip codes 78734 (Lakeway) and 78738 (Bee Cave), comparing the 90 days ending August 10, 2026 with the 90 days ending October 28, 2026.
In August I pulled 90 days of sales for Lakeway and Bee Cave and called it a balanced-to-buyer market. I pulled the same numbers again this week. In less than three months, the market moved further toward buyers on almost every measure.
Fewer houses sold, they took longer to sell, more of them sat, and nearly half of the sellers whose listings ended in the last 90 days didn't sell at all. Over the same stretch, the average 30-year mortgage rate climbed from 6.67 percent to 7.4 percent.
Here's what changed, and what it means if you're buying or selling here this winter.
August vs. October, side by side
| 78734 and 78738, prior 90 days | As of Aug 10 | As of Oct 28 |
|---|---|---|
| Houses closed | 310 | 250 |
| Median sale price | about $884,000 | about $840,000 |
| Median days to go under contract | 32 | 47 |
| Median sale as share of original list price | 96.0% | 94.2% |
| Active listings | 414 | 468 |
| Median days on market, active listings | 70 | 89 |
| Active listings on market 90+ days | 38% | 44% |
| Months of supply | about 4 | about 5.6 |
| Listings withdrawn or expired | 160 | 229 |
| Share of ended listings that didn't sell | about 1 in 3 | nearly 1 in 2 |
A quick note on how to read this. Each column covers the 90 days before its date, and the two windows overlap by about ten days at the turn of July and August. The August window is also mostly summer, when this market is usually busiest, so some slowdown into fall is normal. What isn't normal is how much moved, and how fast.
The biggest change: how many houses sat
Look at how long the houses that did sell took to get there.
In the August numbers, about one in five closings went under contract within the first week. By October, it was about one in seven. Meanwhile the share of closings that took more than 90 days nearly doubled, from about 15 percent to about 27 percent.
And the houses that didn't sell stopped trying. In August, 160 listings withdrew or expired against 310 that closed. In October it was 229 against 250. Nearly half of the sellers whose listings ended in the last 90 days walked away without a sale.
What hasn't changed is the payoff for getting it right. In both windows, houses that went under contract in the first week sold for a median of 100 percent of their original asking price. Houses that took more than 90 days sold for a median of 88.8 percent in August and 88.2 percent in October. On a house near today's median price, that gap is roughly a hundred thousand dollars. I break that down in how houses near Lake Travis actually sell for more.
What mortgage rates did over the same stretch
Freddie Mac's weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.67 percent on August 13. By October 1 it had reached 7.28 percent, the highest since November 2023, and it hit 7.4 percent on October 8 and 15. On October 22 it eased to 7.32 percent, the first weekly decline in nine weeks.
Here's what that does to a buyer at our price point. On an $840,000 house with 20 percent down, principal and interest at 6.67 percent comes to about $4,320 a month. At 7.4 percent it's about $4,650. That's roughly $330 more a month for the same house, before taxes and insurance.
Or look at it the other way. A buyer who was comfortable with that payment in August can now afford about $780,000 for the same monthly cost. That's about $60,000 of buying power gone in two months, without the buyer or the house changing at all.
Rates aren't the only thing moving this market, and the seasonal slowdown is real. But when buyers lose that much buying power that fast, they get pickier, they take longer, and they pass on houses priced for the market they wish they had. That's exactly what the October numbers show.
Where the slowdown is sharpest
The top of the market is carrying the most inventory. Above $2 million, there are 68 active listings, and they've been on the market a median of 132 days, up from 104 days in August. The ones that did sell above $2 million took a median of 69 days to go under contract.
The $1 to $1.5 million range shows the biggest discounts. Houses in that band closed at a median of about 90 percent of their original asking price, the steepest of any range.
Below $1 million, houses that sold took about six weeks and closed at roughly 94 to 96 percent of their original price. Slower than summer, but the well-priced ones are still moving.
That's why I never price off a general headline. Your price band, your neighborhood, and your kind of house each have their own market. More on that in what the map doesn't tell you about Lakeway, Bee Cave and Lake Travis.
If you're selling this winter
The margin for error got smaller between August and October. A price that would have drawn a showing in summer now gets skipped, because buyers have more choices and less buying power.
Price to the market you have, not the one from six months ago. Have the house fully ready before it goes live. Watch the first two weeks closely, and if the market is telling you something, adjust once and meaningfully rather than in small steps. I wrote about the most common traps in the seller mistakes that cost the most around Lake Travis.
It can still be done well. My 15 closed listings this year have averaged 100.9 percent of their original asking price, in a market where the median is now 94 percent.
If you're buying this winter
This is the most leverage buyers have had here in years. You can take a normal option period, inspect fully, ask for repairs, and negotiate. A house that's been sitting for three or four months is worth a conversation, especially above $1 million.
Rates are the hard part. Talk to a lender about your options, including a rate buydown, and ask whether the seller will contribute toward it as part of your offer. And if rates ease from here, you may be able to refinance later. You can't go back and renegotiate the price.
If you're relocating, my guide to buying here from out of state covers how the process works.
What I'm watching next
Whether the October 22 dip in rates turns into a trend, and whether the withdrawn listings come back in the spring at new prices. I'll pull these numbers again in January.
If you want to know what this means for your house or your search specifically, get in touch. I'm glad to walk you through the numbers for your street and price range.
Lori Wakefield, REALTOR
Keller Williams Lake Travis
512.657.4455
Market statistics are from MLS data for zip codes 78734 and 78738 as pulled by Lori Wakefield. Months of supply is active listings divided by the average monthly closings in each window. Payment examples assume 20 percent down on a 30-year fixed loan and exclude taxes, insurance, and HOA dues. Mortgage rates are Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey weekly averages.